Brazil presidential race 2026: Lula faces working‑class shift as voters demand change

The new face of Brazil’s workforce

Over the past decade Brazil’s labour market has moved beyond the classic factory floor and state‑run enterprises that defined the country’s political battleground in the 1990s and early 2000s. According to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), informal jobs now account for more than 30 % of all employment, with gig‑economy platforms, home‑based services and precarious contract work expanding fastest among workers under 35.

A second demographic transformation runs parallel to the rise of informality: women, Afro‑Brazilians and migrants are increasingly represented in the lower‑paid sectors that fuel Brazil’s domestic consumption. The 2025 census showed that women make up 55 % of the informal workforce, while Afro‑Brazilians hold 62 % of these jobs, a stark contrast to the formal sector where white men still dominate senior positions.

These trends matter politically because Brazil’s traditional labour unions – once the backbone of the Workers’ Party (PT) – have lost bargaining power inside a fragmented market. New associations of gig workers, delivery riders and home‑care providers have begun to organise through social media, demanding minimum wage guarantees, health benefits and digital rights.

How the shift is redrawing the electoral map

In the first round of the 2026 presidential election, former president Jair Bolsonaro’s right‑wing coalition captured 31 % of the vote, largely by appealing to rural landowners and evangelical voters. Lula, the incumbent, secured 45 % but saw his margin shrink in the sprawling metropolises of São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and the Northeast’s emerging tech hubs, where younger, informal workers turned out in larger numbers than in 2022.

Analysts at Datafolha point out that the swing among informal workers could be decisive in the runoff. While the PT still enjoys loyalty among older unionised steelworkers and public‑sector employees, the newer labour groups are less attached to party ideology and more focused on concrete promises such as a universal basic income for gig workers and a national digital‑rights charter.

The opposition candidate, former mayor of Belo Horizonte, Carlos Eduardo Moraes, has tailored his campaign to these constituencies, pledging tax cuts for small‑scale entrepreneurs and a deregulated platform market. His message resonates with the 18‑29 age bracket, which, according to a recent Ipsos poll, is the most likely to switch votes between rounds.

What Lula’s second‑round strategy reveals

Facing a tighter race than in 2022, Lula’s campaign has pivoted from its traditional emphasis on social programmes to a more granular outreach to informal workers. In the past two weeks he has visited delivery‑driver unions in São Paulo, announced a pilot “micro‑pension” scheme for gig workers and promised a legislative push for a national minimum wage that applies to platform‑based jobs.

Lula’s advisers also hope to re‑ignite the historic alliance with the Catholic Church and evangelical leaders by framing the fight as one between “social justice for the working poor” and “unregulated capitalism that exploits the vulnerable”. This rhetorical shift is intended to neutralise Moraes’s evangelical base while pulling undecided voters back into the PT’s broader social‑rights narrative.

Critics, including economists at Fundação Getúlio Vargas, warn that expanding formal protections to a largely informal sector could strain Brazil’s fiscal balance, especially as the country grapples with a 7 % public‑debt‑to‑GDP ratio. The debate over how to fund these promises is already shaping the policy agenda for a potential second term.

Ripple effects for Africa and the diaspora

Brazil’s export‑driven agribusiness sector is a major supplier of soy, beef and biofuel feedstock to several African markets, notably Angola, Mozambique and South Africa. A Lula administration that leans toward stronger labour standards could raise production costs, potentially tightening supply chains that African importers rely on for animal‑feed and bio‑energy projects.

Conversely, Lula’s pledge to expand digital inclusion for informal workers could open new avenues for Brazilian fintech firms such as Nubank and PagSeguro to partner with African start‑ups seeking cross‑border payment solutions. In 2025, Brazil‑Africa fintech collaborations already accounted for $1.2 billion in transaction volume, a figure that could double if regulatory reforms ease data‑sharing rules.

The Brazilian diaspora in Africa – estimated at 12 000 professionals spread across Lusophone nations like Mozambique and Guinea‑Bissau – is watching the election closely. Many work in education, health and renewable‑energy projects funded by Brazilian development banks. A second‑round victory for Lula is likely to sustain the flow of technical assistance and concessional loans that have underpinned Brazil’s South‑South cooperation agenda since 2003.

Looking ahead: scenarios after Sunday’s vote

If Lula clinches a second‑round win, the immediate task will be translating his informal‑worker pledges into legislation before the 2027 fiscal year. Success could solidify PT’s relevance among Brazil’s youngest voters and set a precedent for other Latin‑American governments confronting gig‑economy growth.

Should Moraes pull off an upset, Brazil may see a rapid deregulation of platform labour, a rollback of minimum‑wage extensions and a more market‑friendly stance toward foreign investment. That outcome could make Brazilian agricultural exports cheaper for African buyers, but it might also spark social unrest among the growing ranks of precarious workers demanding protection.

Regardless of the winner, the election underscores a broader global trend: the political power of workers who are not covered by traditional unions is rising fast. For African policymakers and investors, Brazil’s experiment with integrating informal labour into mainstream politics offers a live case study of how emerging economies can balance growth, equity and digital transformation.

Quick Answers

Who are the main contenders in Brazil's 2026 presidential runoff?
Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and former Belo Horizonte mayor Carlos Eduardo Moraes are set to face each other on October 24, 2026.

How could Brazil's election outcome affect African food imports?
A Lula win may raise labour costs in Brazil’s agribusiness sector, potentially increasing soy and beef prices for African importers; a Moraes victory could keep prices lower but reduce social‑policy cooperation.

What new policy promises is Lula making to informal workers?
Lula has announced a pilot micro‑pension scheme, a universal basic income pilot for gig workers and plans to extend the minimum wage to platform‑based jobs.

Source: www.bbc.co.uk