Osun APC defeat not trade‑off for Adeleke’s support for Tinubu, says Hakeem Baba‑Ahmed (2026)

Background: A tightly contested Osun governorship

The 2026 Osun State governorship race ended with PDP candidate Ademola Adeleke clinching 511,067 votes, narrowly beating the APC’s nominee. Osun, a southwestern state, has long been a political bellwether, swinging between the two major parties in successive elections. The result marks a rare defeat for the ruling All Progressives Congress in a region that President Bola Tinubu has traditionally counted on for his political base.

Adeleke’s victory is significant not only because of the margin—just a few thousand votes separating the two contenders—but also because it comes amid growing speculation that the governor’s campaign was quietly aligned with Tinubu’s 2027 presidential ambitions. Observers have noted that Adeleke, a scion of a prominent political family, has maintained a low‑profile relationship with the president, fueling talk of a possible quid‑pro‑quo.

The claim: Baba‑Ahmed pushes back on the ‘trade‑off’ narrative

Former presidential adviser Hakeem Baba‑Ahmed publicly rejected the idea that the APC’s loss in Osun was a price paid for Adeleke’s support of Tinubu ahead of the 2027 election. Speaking to local media, Baba‑Ahmed argued that the governor’s endorsement was driven by personal political calculations rather than any secret pact with the president. He stressed that “the electorate’s decision reflects local dynamics, not a national bargain,” according to his remarks on a Lagos radio station.

Baba‑Ahmed’s stance seeks to defuse growing rumors that the APC is sacrificing state‑level power to secure southern votes for Tinubu’s next presidential bid. By distancing the party’s defeat from any alleged arrangement, he aims to preserve the APC’s credibility in the southwest, a region where the party’s grassroots networks remain fragile after the recent loss.

Implications for Tinubu’s 2027 campaign

If the Osun outcome is read as a signal of waning APC influence in the southwest, President Tinubu may need to recalibrate his coalition strategy for 2027. The governor’s win could embolden other southern politicians to distance themselves from the ruling party while still offering tacit support for Tinubu’s re‑election, creating a “soft‑alliance” model that sidesteps formal party affiliation.

Analysts note that the APC’s ability to mobilise voters in key swing states like Osun, Lagos, and Oyo will be decisive in a tightly contested 2027 race. A loss in Osun could force the president’s campaign to lean more heavily on northern strongholds, potentially alienating southern voters who already feel neglected by federal development projects. This dynamic may also open space for third‑party or independent candidates to capture disaffected voters.

Intra‑party tensions and the risk of realignment

The defeat has reignited internal debates within the APC about candidate selection, resource allocation, and the party’s ideological direction. Sources close to the party’s national secretariat say that senior figures are questioning whether the party’s current leadership has adequately addressed the concerns of southwestern constituents, particularly on issues such as agricultural subsidies and youth unemployment.

There is also a growing perception that the APC’s national leadership is prioritising Tinubu’s personal political calculus over the party’s broader electoral health. If this perception persists, it could trigger defections of key state‑level politicians to opposition parties or to newly emerging regional movements, further fragmenting the party’s southern base.

What the diaspora and investors should watch

Osun’s economy is heavily reliant on agriculture, especially cocoa and cashew production, sectors that attract significant foreign and diaspora investment. A shift from APC to PDP control could lead to changes in state‑level fiscal policies, procurement processes, and infrastructure priorities. Investors with stakes in agribusiness are likely to monitor the new governor’s approach to land reforms and export incentives.

The diaspora community, which frequently sends remittances to family members in Osun, also watches state politics for clues about security and public services. A stable PDP administration that delivers on promised health and education projects could encourage greater diaspora engagement, whereas continued political uncertainty might dampen investment and community development initiatives.

Looking ahead: legal battles, party strategy, and the 2027 timeline

The APC has signalled that it will explore legal avenues to challenge the election results, citing alleged irregularities in several polling units. While such challenges are common in Nigerian elections, they often delay the transition of power and can strain inter‑party relations. The outcome of any court case will be a bellwether for how the APC chooses to position itself in the run‑up to the 2027 presidential election.

Regardless of legal outcomes, the party is expected to regroup by strengthening its grassroots networks in the southwest and by possibly courting defectors from the PDP. Political scientists warn that the next six months will be crucial for Tinubu’s campaign architects: they must balance the need for southern goodwill with the risk of appearing to compromise the APC’s core identity.

Quick Answers

What were the final vote totals in the 2026 Osun governorship election?
Ademola Adeleke of the PDP received 511,067 votes, while the APC candidate trailed by a few thousand votes.

Who is Hakeem Baba‑Ahmed?
He is a former political adviser to President Bola Tinubu and a senior APC strategist who frequently comments on party affairs.

How could the Osun result affect President Tinubu’s 2027 presidential bid?
The loss may force Tinubu to rely more on northern support and to negotiate softer alliances with southwestern leaders, potentially reshaping his coalition strategy.

Source: dailypost.ng